La Revue a 80 ans et 10 ans sous le nom Assurances et gestion des risques

PROFESSIONAL ARTICLES

Le 80^e anniversaire de la revue Assurances et gestion des risques
by Rémi Moreau                                                                             

Modélisation du risque/Credit Risk Models
La modélisation des risques, peut-on dompter le hasard?
by Geneviève Gauthier                                                                   

Structural Credit Risk Models : A Review
by Sadok Laajimi                                                                           

Assurance et réassurance/Insurance and Reinsurance
L’intérêt d’assurance en assurance de personnes : une étude de droit comparé
by Sébastien Lanctôt                                                                     

The World's Largest Reinsurance Groups : a look at names, numbers and countries from 1980 to 2010
by J. François Outreville                                                              

Actualité financière/Current Financial Affairs
Crise de la dette souveraine en Europe

Current Events
under the responsibility of Rémi Moreau

1. Le gouvernement québécois s'est doté d'une loi «zéro alcool» pour les jeunes conducteurs de 21 ans et moins – 2. Les catastrophes naturelles ont coûté 116 milliards de dollars aux assureurs en 2011 – 3. L'âge d'admissibilité aux pensions de la Sécurité de la vieillesse passe de 65 ans à 67 ans – 4. Où en est la réforme du système de santé aux États-Unis? – 5. Gestion des risques relatifs aux changements climatiques – 6. E-Distribution québécoise des produits d'assurance – 7. Bilan des accidents des autobus de la STM – 8. Rapport Aon sur le marché canadien de l'assurance – 9. La Cour suprême s'est prononcée contre l'idée du gouvernement fédéral de créer une commission des valeurs mobilières unique au pays – 10. Desjardins s'implante aux États-Unis et en Europe – 11. Le Lloyd's se dote d'un nouveau président – 12. Dix infractions en tête de liste dans les demandes d'enquête auprès de la syndique de la Chambre de la sécurité financière – 
13. Le Fonds d'indemnisation des services financiers a plus de dix ans maintenant

Rapport d’activités de la Chaire de recherche du Canada en gestion des risques – HEC Montréal – Année 2010-2011 (l^er juin 2010 au 31 mai 2011)
by Georges Dionne                                                                 

La Chaire d’assurance et de services financiers L’Industrielle-Alliance à l’Université Laval
by Gilles Bernier                                                                    

Editorial Report 2011
J. François Outreville                                                         

Subjects’ and authors’ index

April 2011 to January 2012          
 

Le 80^e anniversaire de la revue 
Assurances et gestion des risques
by Rémi Moreau

As we are celebrating the 80th anniversary of the journal Insurance and Risk Management, the author traces the evolution of the journal founded by Gйrard Parizeau in 1932. It is divided by five distinct periods, under different journal’s directions : the beginning (1932-1950); the rapidly developing period (1950-1975); the years under the ownership of Sodarcan group (1975-1995); the HEC Montrйal period after 1996, and finally, a new stage beginning in 2011.

For each period, the author underlines the evolution of Quebec as a whole regarding its social, economic and financial development, as well as the major changes in the insurance industry.

La modélisation des risques, peut-on dompter le hasard?
by Geneviève Gauthier

Risk modeling allows us to better measure the occurrence of some events but does not allow us to accurately predict them. In this risk modeling work, the model framework, the estimation method, the type of data and the sampling period influence directly and significantly the responses and, thus, despite the appearance of rigor, these choices are not neutral. We discuss these aspects with a few examples.

The issue of modeling the dependence is also discussed when it comes to measure the risks. Finally, a fundamental question : who are responsible for our financial crisis : buyers, financial institutions, regulatory bodies?

The answer to the question title is not simple. No, it is impossible to tame completely randomness, because it is impossible to predict the future and modeling is not absolutely precise. But it is possible to tame the randomness, to identify and control its harmful effects. Modeling teaches us to deal with uncertainties.

Structural Credit Risk Models: A Review
by Sadok Laajimi

In this paper, the author reviews the literature on credit structural models. Contingent claim analysis offers an appealing theoretical framework allowing not only evaluating firm’s claims and default risk, but also financing and investment decisions, as well as determining the impact of policy changes on the firm value and decisions.

First, we present the major structural models and their underlying assumptions, beginning with exogenous default models and the following development leading to endogenous default models as well as other models that accounts for bankruptcy procedures, capital structure decisions and strategic defaults among others. The second part of the paper covers the empirical works related to the structural credit models. These works could be classified into three major categories: the first group examines the ability of structural models to explain the credit spread, the second one evaluate their performance to forecast default occurrence, the last group uses the structural models to study the relationship between credit risk and stock returns.

L’intérêt d’assurance en assurance de personnes: une étude de droit comparé
by Sébastien Lanctôt

In Quebec, the subscription of an insurance of persons contract involves compliance with certain requirements including the insurable interest. In fact, the concept of insurable interest is at the heart of the insurance contract and unless the insured consent is given in writing, it is a prerequisite for the validity of the contract. This article looks at the notion of insurable interest with regards to insurance of persons. We will review the normative framework currently in place in the jurisdictions of England, the United States, some Canadian provinces, France and finally Quebec.

The World’s Largest Reinsurance Groups: A look at names, numbers and countries from 1980 to 2010
by J. François Outreville

L’examen de la distribution des parts de marché des plus grand groupes de réassurance, en termes de primes nettes, permet de comprendre deux dimensions importantes du marché: les changements et tendances dans le niveau de concentration et la position relative des groupes par pays d’origine. Le papier examine également la répartition géographique des groupes de réassurance et les facteurs pouvant expliquer leurs préférences pour la localisation de leurs filiales.

By examining the distribution of the total net premiums written by the largest reinsurance groups in the world, this paper documents two dimensions of the change in market concentration: the trend in concentration in the world’s largest groups, and the relative position of these groups by countries. The paper also examines the geographic distribution of the world’s largest reinsurance groups and the factors explaining their preferred locations of activities.

Crise de la dette souveraine en Europe
by Zied Akrout

The greatest financial and economic crisis since 1930’s has disoriented the financial system and plunged the real economy into recession. As a result of the financial crisis, a massive deterioration of public finances has heavily struck several European countries that are members of the euro zone, which has led to a serious questioning of the European single currency credibility.

The financial turbulences and the euro crisis have revealed the weaknesses of the European construction and at the same time they have insufflated an awareness of the need for acting together. The period 2008-2011 has set the image of the European Union as a political construction which evolves by crises. The latter have served as a driving force behind an integration capable of triggering a reform dynamics considered impossible since the failure of the French and Dutch referendums on the European constitution in 2005.

Our paper aims at facilitating the understanding of the crisis which the European Union is coming across and at providing an overview of the reforms adopted to overcome the crisis.

Keywords : Public finance, budget policy, way out of crisis.

JEL codes : H50, H61, G01